If you believe Apple's well-oiled hype machine, everyone on the planet should be having seizures waiting to get an iPhone. According to one time-tested theory, however, innovators and early adopters -- the ones who jump quickly at taking up a new technology -- make up just 16 percent of consumers. Really, there are still people who wander into an Apple store wondering what this iPod thingy is.
Times Union | 06/07/07
The Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Latest News about Apple iPhone -- your basic phone/iPod/Internet device with an entirely new interface Manage remotely with one interface -- the HP ProLiant DL360 G5 server. that, rumor has it, makes a mean veal piccata -- goes on sale this month. Expect people to line up.
Well, some people. Most of us will wait.
According to a consumer model developed nearly a half-century ago but still in use, roughly one out of 40 who will get an iPhone will rush out to buy one as soon as possible. Another 13.5 percent will buy one in the relatively near future.
Then there are the laggards. These are the people who are just catching up to the wonders of, say, the DVD. An iPhone may be on their list ... for 2013.
Internet, Eh?
There are still people who wander into an Apple store wondering what this iPod thingy is. Not everyone has a high-definition TV, or a cellphone with video capability. Some don't even have a cell phone.
How fast you adopt new technology, products or even ideas can tell a lot about you. In some ways it determines whether you're venturesome or skeptical or merely deliberate.
Sometimes you are so behind the curve you can't see the bend in the road.
It was only several years ago that my older brother still had me faxing him downloaded box scores of St. Bonaventure basketball games. Enough, I said, get a bleeping computer. He finally caved.
"You know," he said not much later, "I think this Internet thing will stick."
Ya think? The man is a judge, people. Be afraid.
Diffusion of Innovations
However, here's the catch: We don't always adopt all technologies and advancements at the same rates. For example, I was an early owner of a hybrid vehicle and a DVR, but still don't own a high-definition television.
A better example, from a Wired magazine blog: Among the big early adopters of solar energy technology are ... the Amish? I guess the reason you're hearing that for the first time is they didn't post the news on their MySpace Latest News about MySpace page.
However, generally speaking, there's a formula -- a theory, actually -- for when people will invest in a major technological shift, whether it be purchasing cable, a microwave or the next generation of video games. The term: Diffusion of Innovations, a theory codified by Everett Rogers in a 1962 book by the same name. His theory, whose roots date back to the 1950s, still hold sway.
In Rogers' theory, those who adopt any new innovation, idea or technology can be categorized in one of five groups. See if you can spot yourself (percentage of all adopters in parentheses). Warning: Categorizations after the parentheses are mine; using statistical analysis, these insights have a margin of error of plus or minus 100 percent:
- Innovators: These people are risk-takers, financially secure and have a strong desire to be first (2.5 percent).
There are a lot of ways to differentiate and divide humanity, but in my experience there are only two types of people: Those who brag about how much they spent for something, and those who brag about how little they spent.
Innovators are proud to have shelled out US$10,000 on a high-def TV that now goes for $1,500. They're also likely to have a Beta VCR and a microwave oven the size of a Buick in their attic. The risk is part of the fun.
- Early adopters: These people are social, educated and often leaders (13.5 percent).
They want to be cool, but not ahead of the wave where they're stuck with a technology that proves useless in six months. While innovators are ahead of everybody, early adopters are essential for developing a critical mass that takes an idea or product mainstream.
My hybrid SUV was an oddity on my block in 2005. Now it's just another way to get the kids around town.
- Early majority: Deliberate, with many social contacts, they wait until the innovation has started to enter mainstream before jumping on board (34 percent).
These are the people who are now getting DVRs, and who are incorporating environmental considerations into their purchases. They are being practical, with little concern for trend-setting.
- Late majority: More traditional, these people tend to be more skeptical of new ideas (34 percent).
Yes, they have a computer. They probably even have a cell phone. However, they grouse about all the things now considered necessities.
- Laggards: They rely on friends and neighbors to clue them in on the next new thing, which often isn't that new by the time they buy it (16 percent).
This just in: VCRs are really on the way out, and good luck finding a pay phone on the street if you gotta make a call from the road.
Will I be getting an iPhone? No. Well, yes. Maybe. Just not yet.
I still have to get an HDTV -- and find a way to pay for it.
Anybody want to buy some vinyl records?
Times Union | 06/07/07
The Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Latest News about Apple iPhone -- your basic phone/iPod/Internet device with an entirely new interface Manage remotely with one interface -- the HP ProLiant DL360 G5 server. that, rumor has it, makes a mean veal piccata -- goes on sale this month. Expect people to line up.
Well, some people. Most of us will wait.
According to a consumer model developed nearly a half-century ago but still in use, roughly one out of 40 who will get an iPhone will rush out to buy one as soon as possible. Another 13.5 percent will buy one in the relatively near future.
Then there are the laggards. These are the people who are just catching up to the wonders of, say, the DVD. An iPhone may be on their list ... for 2013.
Internet, Eh?
There are still people who wander into an Apple store wondering what this iPod thingy is. Not everyone has a high-definition TV, or a cellphone with video capability. Some don't even have a cell phone.
How fast you adopt new technology, products or even ideas can tell a lot about you. In some ways it determines whether you're venturesome or skeptical or merely deliberate.
Sometimes you are so behind the curve you can't see the bend in the road.
It was only several years ago that my older brother still had me faxing him downloaded box scores of St. Bonaventure basketball games. Enough, I said, get a bleeping computer. He finally caved.
"You know," he said not much later, "I think this Internet thing will stick."
Ya think? The man is a judge, people. Be afraid.
Diffusion of Innovations
However, here's the catch: We don't always adopt all technologies and advancements at the same rates. For example, I was an early owner of a hybrid vehicle and a DVR, but still don't own a high-definition television.
A better example, from a Wired magazine blog: Among the big early adopters of solar energy technology are ... the Amish? I guess the reason you're hearing that for the first time is they didn't post the news on their MySpace Latest News about MySpace page.
However, generally speaking, there's a formula -- a theory, actually -- for when people will invest in a major technological shift, whether it be purchasing cable, a microwave or the next generation of video games. The term: Diffusion of Innovations, a theory codified by Everett Rogers in a 1962 book by the same name. His theory, whose roots date back to the 1950s, still hold sway.
In Rogers' theory, those who adopt any new innovation, idea or technology can be categorized in one of five groups. See if you can spot yourself (percentage of all adopters in parentheses). Warning: Categorizations after the parentheses are mine; using statistical analysis, these insights have a margin of error of plus or minus 100 percent:
- Innovators: These people are risk-takers, financially secure and have a strong desire to be first (2.5 percent).
There are a lot of ways to differentiate and divide humanity, but in my experience there are only two types of people: Those who brag about how much they spent for something, and those who brag about how little they spent.
Innovators are proud to have shelled out US$10,000 on a high-def TV that now goes for $1,500. They're also likely to have a Beta VCR and a microwave oven the size of a Buick in their attic. The risk is part of the fun.
- Early adopters: These people are social, educated and often leaders (13.5 percent).
They want to be cool, but not ahead of the wave where they're stuck with a technology that proves useless in six months. While innovators are ahead of everybody, early adopters are essential for developing a critical mass that takes an idea or product mainstream.
My hybrid SUV was an oddity on my block in 2005. Now it's just another way to get the kids around town.
- Early majority: Deliberate, with many social contacts, they wait until the innovation has started to enter mainstream before jumping on board (34 percent).
These are the people who are now getting DVRs, and who are incorporating environmental considerations into their purchases. They are being practical, with little concern for trend-setting.
- Late majority: More traditional, these people tend to be more skeptical of new ideas (34 percent).
Yes, they have a computer. They probably even have a cell phone. However, they grouse about all the things now considered necessities.
- Laggards: They rely on friends and neighbors to clue them in on the next new thing, which often isn't that new by the time they buy it (16 percent).
This just in: VCRs are really on the way out, and good luck finding a pay phone on the street if you gotta make a call from the road.
Will I be getting an iPhone? No. Well, yes. Maybe. Just not yet.
I still have to get an HDTV -- and find a way to pay for it.
Anybody want to buy some vinyl records?
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